Betting mathematics
Closing Line Value Calculator: Price Comparison
Compare the decimal price you took with the closing price for the exact same market. Positive price-based CLV means your offered return was higher.
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How closing line value is calculated
This tool defines price-based CLV as (odds taken ÷ closing odds − 1) × 100%. At 2.20 versus 2.00, that is +10%. Taking 1.80 before a close of 2.00 gives −10%. Different reports use other definitions; compare the formula as well as the number.
The probability difference shown separately is (1 ÷ closing odds − 1 ÷ taken odds) × 100 percentage points. For 2.20 versus 2.00, that is 50% − 45.4545% = 4.5455 points. It is not the same measure as a 10% price improvement.
Match the market before comparing
Use the same selection, spread or total, settlement conditions and odds format. A ticket at −3.5 cannot be compared directly with a closing −4.5 price through this ratio: the underlying event has changed. The calculator uses prices you supply and does not retrieve historical closing lines.
The result includes whatever margin is in each quote. Use the fair odds calculator with every outcome if you want a proportional no-vig benchmark. Even that estimate is not a known true probability.
What positive CLV does and does not mean
A better price increases the potential payout for a winning bet, but the bet can still lose. A single comparison does not establish forecasting skill or guaranteed long-run profit. To explore a probability estimate explicitly, use the odds value calculator.
Quoted closing price versus a no-vig benchmark
A quoted close still includes its market margin. To use a proportional no-vig benchmark, enter every closing outcome in the no-vig odds calculator, then use the fair decimal odds for your selection here. Two closing prices of 1.91 normalize to 2.00 each. A taken price of 2.10 is 5% above that fair close, versus about 9.95% above the raw 1.91 quote.
Neither comparison proves the closing market knows the true chance. A price change for the same selection can be measured directly; a move from −3 to −3.5 changes the bet itself and needs a score-distribution model. This tool does not invent that conversion.